2030 on the horizon: EU climate targets and the realities of Poland’s transition
A trillion zlotys in investments and questions about the realism of the assumptions are the focus of a new publication by Baker Tilly TPA experts titled “2030 on the horizon: EU climate targets vs. the Polish realities of the transition.” In the publication, we break down ambitious energy targets into their component parts and present forecasts for their delivery, including regulatory goals and concrete figures on capacity, investment, and energy consumption in Poland.
Which energy consumption scenarios are most likely, and what will they mean for generation capacity?
According to the The National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK), the energy transition by the end of this decade requires over PLN 1 trillion in investment, including PLN 545 billion for new generation sources (PLN 245 billion from 2026 to 2030).
PLN 545 billion for new generation sources (PLN 245 billion from 2026 to 2030),
PLN 136 billion for grid development in 2026–2030,
PLN 381 billion for sources and grids in 2026–2030 — almost 80% more than in 2021–2025.
With investments on this scale, maintaining competitive energy prices will be a key challenge, especially since prices are already higher today than in the US or China. Rising grid costs, support mechanisms (e.g., the capacity market), and the cost of balancing the system will add to this challenge.
Based on the current draft of the KPEiK (the WAM scenario), we demonstrate what EU policy targets Poland, the pathways to 2030, and the greatest risk of failing to deliver the plans.
From the publication you will learn, among other things:
what pace of RES (renewables) development is needed for Poland to reach a 32% RES share by 2030,
how targets and risks are distributed across three key sectors: transport, heating/cooling, and power generation,
what investment outlays (over PLN 1 trillion) are needed by the end of the decade and how they may translate into energy prices,
how ETS 2, allowance prices, and support policy (subsidies, auction systems, the capacity market) will affect the competitiveness of Polish companies.
